Kapuas District CPT Seasonal Precipitation Forecast -- APHR

These maps include deterministic seasonal precipitation forecasts for the Kapuas district and surrounding region, a map of hindcast correlation skill, and a series of associated analyses for a user-selected grid box.

Use the drop-down menus at the top of the page to select the forecast target season and the map field to display, including total rainfall, rainfall anomaly, percent of median rainfall, and probability of exceeding or non-exceeding a user-specified daily precipitation rate. Click on the map to produce probability of exceedance graphs and time series of observed and hindcast precipitation for the selected grid point.

Dataset Documentation

Data: Output from CPT forecast valid for four consecutive 3-month seasons based on training period 1982-2006 between three model hindcasts (CFSv2, CanCM3, COLA-CCSM3) from National Multi-Model Ensemble, and APHRODITE gridded precipitation dataset, CPT v10 here.

How to use this interactive map

Return to the menu page: Click the blue link called “Climate and Fire” at the top left corner of the page.

Select the precipitation forecast date: The forecasts are produced on a monthly basis, at the beginning of the first day of the month. To view the precipitation forecast of interest, you must select the forecast issuance date from the map, and then the target season of the forecast from the "Target Season" pull-down menu. Use the following steps:

1. You can see the forecast start date by moving your mouse over the map until you see a text box containing the month appear above the top of the map. By default this will be the most recent available forecast.
2. To step forward or back by one month, click the corresponding arrow buttons to the left or right of the text box, and the map will automatically refresh.
3. To manually change the forecast issue date, type your date of interest into the text box, then press "enter". This must follow the format: "0000 01 Mar 2014".
4. When the forecast issue date is selected, the available 3-month target seasons will automatically update in the "Target Season" pull-down menu. Select the target season of interest from this pull-down menu.

Select the variable of interest to display: Options available in the "Field" pull-down menu include "Rainfall", "Anomaly", "Probability of exceeding", etc. If "Probability of exceeding" or "Probability of non-exceeding" is chosen, an additional text box will appear that allows a daily precipitation threshold to be specified in units of mm/day.

Click on forecast map for local information: Click on any grid box in the forecast map to display two graphs at the bottom of the page that display information for the selected grid point, including:

• A small map that shows the location of the selected grid box
• A probability of exceedance graph for precipitation based upon observations (in black) and a curve that parameterizes observed precipitation (in blue) for the 3-month season shown, and the forecast precipitation (in red) for the selected forecast start time and season (all in units of average mm/day). Use the "Upper limit of probability of exceedance graph" threshold text box at the top of the page to specify the upper limit of precipitation (in average mm/day) shown in this graph.
• A time series graph of observed precipitation for the selected season (in blue), and hindcast precipitation for the starting month and season selected (in red)

Click here to access the Data Library datasets of observations, forecasts, and hindcasts used in this tool.

Helpdesks

Contact help@iri.columbia.edu with any technical questions or problems with this Map Room.