These are experimental forecasts of the likelihood of high or low fire activity in the province of Central Kalimantan, Indonesia. By monitoring the NINO 4 index of the sea surface temperature from April to September, it is possible to estimate the fire activity one to two months in advance.
This page presents experimental forecasts of the likelihood of high or low fire activity in the provinces of South, Central, West, and East Kalimantan in Indonesia. This experimental research was conducted by IRI through a partnership with Bogor Agriculture University with support from CARE Indonesia. IRI is currently working with the Indonesian Meteorological Service (BMKG) to compare methodologies for forecasting relevant to fires; this work is being funded by USAID.
By monitoring the NINO4 index of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from April to September, it is possible to estimate the fire activity one to two months in advance. This analysis is based on data from 1998-2006 on fire hotspots (derived from NOAA-AVHRR) and on the NINO4 index. The four graphs that appear further down on this page show the results of this analysis for each of the four Kalimantan provinces in Indonesia.
The time series of the NINO4 index (shown in the graph above) is updated every month. Based on its relationship to fire activity, users may view the NINO4 data and forecast 1-2 months ahead whether fire activity is likely to be above or below median levels.
Description: The time series above gives the value of the NINO4 sea surface temperature anomaly index in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean (description of NINO4 index) based upon sea surface temperature anomalies in the Reynolds and Smith OIv2 data set (description), with 1971-2000 as the climatological base period. NCEP is an acronym for the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction.
Contact help@iri.columbia.edu with any technical questions or problems with this Map Room, for example, the forecasts not displaying or updating properly.