Malaria Historical Analysis

Climate and Health Climate and Malaria

Climate and Malaria

Malaria Historical Analysis

Climate variables may effect malaria transmission in certain regions. These products aid to determine the historical risk for malaria due to climatic factors.

The maps and charts in this section may aid in forecasting malaria epidemics by helping the user understand the climate risk of their region by:

Showing the suitability of malaria transmission based on historical climate records.
Comparing current climatic conditions to climatic conditions during a past outbreak.

Studies show that three climatic variables are related to malaria outbreaks. These variables and the range that may increase the risk for malaria transmission are listed below.

Temperature: Average temperature between 18°C and 32°C
Precipitation: Average precipitation is greater than 80mm
Humidity: Average relative humidity is greater than 60%

References:

Ceccato P., Connor S. J., Jeanne I., Thomson M.C. Application of Geographical Information Systems and Remote Sensing technologies for assessing and monitoring malaria risk. Parassitologia .47.1 (2005), 81-96.

Country-Average WASP Index

This plot shows the time series of a country’s 12-month Weighted Anomaly Standardization Precipitation (WASP) index relative to a baseline period. The purpose of this tool is to provide a simple visual means of relating country-averaged precipitation to a reference period of interest.

Seasonal Climatic Suitability for Malaria Transmission

This map shows the number of months suitable for malaria transmission, based on climatological averages. Suitability is defined as the coincidence of precipitation accumulation greater than 80 mm, average temperature between 18°C and 32°C, and relative humidity greater than 60%.

Historical Probability of Seasonal Rainfall Tercile Conditioned on ENSO

This map shows the historical probability of seasonal average rainfall falling within the upper (wet), middle (normal), or bottom (dry) one-third ("tercile") of the 1981-current historical distribution in Africa given the state of ENSO (El Niño, Neutral, La Niña) during that same season.

Historical Probability of Seasonal Temperature Tercile Conditioned on ENSO

This map shows the historical probability of seasonal temperature falling within the upper (hot), middle (normal), or bottom (cold) one-third ("tercile") of the historical distribution in Africa given the state of ENSO (El Niño, Neutral, La Niña) during that same season.

MARA Distribution Model of Climatic Suitability for Malaria Transmission

This map shows climatic suitability for malaria transmission based on the MARA (Mapping Malaria Risk in Africa) distribution model.

Malaria Atlas Project (MAP)

This tools allows users to explore rate and count metrics to understand the risk and burden of 2 Plasmodium parasites at global, regional, national, subnational and 5 square kilometers levels over the last 10 years.